THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-09-05
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Sep 05 stated that day 924 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 164 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 1 missile strikes, 57 air strikes, 334 drone strikes and more than 2,500 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Russia’s Casualty rate reduces their ability to exploit tactical successes
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Sep 05 Intelligence Update on Ukraine stated that the average daily Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in Ukraine has increased in August 2024 to 1187 per day, according to Ukrainian General Staff reporting. Since the start of the conflict Russia has likely suffered over 610,000 casualties.
The August 2024 increase in casualty rate is almost certainly due to Ukraine’s Kursk operation and continued pressure on the Pokrovsk axis. Russia continues to rely on mass to mitigate their lack of personnel and equipment capability.
Although Russian pressure on the whole frontline will continue over the next month, their capability constraints will likely continue to reduce their ability to exploit any tactical successes into wider operational gains. Russia’s casualty rate will likely continue to average above 1,000 a day throughout September 2024 as Russia continues operations on a wide front from Kursk in the north to Robotyne in the south.
The Russian army has reached its apogee, a decline in activity is beginning
The offensive momentum of the Russian occupation army has reached its apogee and will begin to decline in the near future, former Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Igor Romanenko said in an interview with OBOZ.ua.
Pokrovsk is still the number one target for the enemy. Here he uses all his strength and means, including forcing soldiers to carry out orders under threat of execution on the spot.
Nevertheless, the enemy no longer has the opportunity to actively advance in all directions in eastern Ukraine. This is evidenced by the situation near Toreck and in the New York area. To compensate for this "squat", the aggressor country Russia can choose a new tactic: the active use of short-range ballistic missiles, including through the supply of "evil axes". At the same time, at the level of heads of state, there is now the formation of strategic "red lines".
– I think the offensive momentum of the Russian occupation army reached its apogee in August. It is projected to decline in September. In all directions and at such a pace, the enemy will no longer be able to move. Romanenko said.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of September 5, 2024, the enemy attacked with one "Iskander-M" ballistic missile from the occupied Crimea and 78 "Shahed" type UAVs (launch areas - Kursk, Yeisk, Primorsko-Akhtarsk).
Aviation, anti-aircraft missile forces, electronic warfare units and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine were involved in repelling the enemy's air attack.
As a result of the anti-aircraft battle, 60 attack UAVs were shot down. Two drones returned to Russia, one to Belarus. 15 – locally lost on the territory of Ukraine (presumably under the influence of EW means), no information about the destruction or casualties was received.
Anti-aircraft defense worked in Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Poltava, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions.
The Russian Border Incursion
Ukraine continues to advance in Kursk
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Sep 04 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment assessed that Ukrainian forces reportedly made marginal advances in Kursk Oblast amid continued fighting throughout the Ukrainian salient on September 4. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced in fields southeast of Durovka (east of Korenevo) and along the 38K-030 road southeast of Koreveno itself.
Russian milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces withdrew from positions in Malaya Loknya (northwest of Sudzha), consistent with previous Russian claims that a small contingent of Russian forces had been attempting to hold positions within Malaya Loknya.
Russian sources claimed that fighting otherwise continued in the Korenevo and Sudzha directions, particularly near Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Martynovka (northeast of Sudzha).
Russians redeployed 60,000 troops to Kursk Oblast – Zelenskyy
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an interview with NBC News stated that Russia has redeployed 60,000 troops to Kursk Oblast from the war zone in Ukraine due to the success of Ukraine's Kursk operation.
"One of the goals of the Kursk operation is to bring their troops... back to their territory. I can now announce this: they have redeployed about 60,000 troops there as of today. They have withdrawn [military personnel] from areas where we encountered challenges due to the lack of military [aid] packages [from Ukraine's allies]."
The president noted that it came to a point where Ukraine could respond with only 1 shell to 12 Russian shells.
Zelenskyy stressed that after some Russian forces were withdrawn from the occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, the ratio of shells in some areas shifted from 1-to-12 to 1-to-3.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 1 Russian attack near Vovchansk.
Kupyansk Sector: Russia Forces carried out 15 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Synkivka, Hlushkivka, Berestove and Lozova. 1 engagement continues.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 11 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Druzhelyubivka, Hrekivka, Nevske, Novosadovoye and Torske
Siversk Sector: Russian forces carried out 2 unsuccessful assaults in the vicinity of Verkhnokamianske and Ivano-Darivka.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 2 unsuccessful offensive actions near Chasiv Yar and Kalinina.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 12 unsuccessful offensive actions near Toretsk, Nelipivka and Nui York. 4 engagements are ongoing. The situation is under control.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : The enemy conducted 49 attacks against Ukrainian defences in this area over the last day concentrating in the vicinity of Zelene Pole, Vozdvizhenko, Myrolyubivka, Hrodivka, Mykholaivka, Novohrodivka and Selydove. 2 engagements are ongoing.
Kurakhove Sector: This sector was also extremely active today with 46 combat encounters. Russian forces tried to advance mainly in the areas of the settlements of Krasnogorivka, Heorhiivka and Kostyantynivka. 4 engagements remain in progress.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 3 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Prechystivka and Voidane. 1 engagement remains in progress.
Orikhiv Sector: The situation in this sector has not changed significantly. 2 enemy attacks were repulsed over the last day in the vicinity of Robotyne and Novoandriivka.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, the situation has not changed significantly. Russian forces made 5 unsuccessful attempts to force Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Zelenskyy orders war's biggest reshuffle to give Ukraine 'new energy'
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Wednesday that Ukraine needed "new energy", as he ordered a major government reshuffle at a crucial juncture in the war against Russia. Reuters reports.
A total of six ministers, including Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, submitted their resignation and parliament accepted the resignations of four.
They included the resignations of a deputy prime minister in charge of European integration, the strategic industries minister overseeing Ukraine's arms production and two other ministers, the lawmakers said.
"We need new energy today, and these steps are related only to the strengthening of our state in different directions," Zelenskyy told media during a joint news conference with a visiting Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris.
Lawmakers said that parliament was expected to consider Kuleba's resignation on Thursday.
After Zelenskyy, 43-year-old Kuleba was the best-known face of Ukraine overseas, meeting leaders around the world and lobbying for military and political support in fluent English.
Later on Wednesday, Zelenskiy met lawmakers from his "Servant of the People" party, and the leader of the parliamentary group said those attending backed the president's calls for changes in the government line-up.
"Based on the results of the meeting of the faction, a general picture of personnel rotations was worked out to strengthen the state," faction leader David Arakhamia wrote on the Telegram messaging app.
On the list of candidates being considered by deputies to replace ministers who resigned was First Deputy Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha as a potential successor to Kuleba.
"Now half of the government will be renewed. This is Zelenskiy's style. He believes that the new minister brings new energy, new approaches, works more actively. He expects exactly this effect."
Fesenko did not expect a major foreign policy change following Kuleba's expected dismissal.
Analysts said Zelenskyy's talent pool was limited and expected some outgoing ministers to be reappointed to new roles.
Outgoing Strategic Industries Minister Oleksandr Kamyshin, who oversaw a jump in domestic arms production, said on Tuesday he would remain in the defence sector in a different role.
Lawmaker Yaroslav Zheleznyak said parliament would continue considering resignations and appointments on Thursday. For now, 10 out of 21 ministerial portfolios were vacant.
RUSSIAN WORLD
Corruption scandal engulfs Russian secret weapons projects
Two former high-ranking officials from Russia’s Ministry of Defense, responsible for overseeing classified weapons development projects, have been arrested on charges of large-scale bribery. Defence Blog reports.
Retired colonels Andrey Chekmazov and Dmitry Fomin were taken into custody, accused of accepting bribes totaling 7.7 million rubles ($86,000) in exchange for turning a blind eye to violations in military contracts. The arrests were confirmed by the Main Military Investigative Directorate of Russia’s Investigative Committee.
Chekmazov, who led the Department for advanced interdisciplinary research in the field of new physical principles for weapons development, and Fomin, his deputy, were responsible for overseeing key projects touted by Russian President Vladimir Putin as part of the country’s future military capabilities.
The accusations stem from two state contracts signed between the Ministry of Defense and the company Oborontest in 2016 and 2022, with a total value of 1.5 billion rubles ($16 million).
According to investigators, between June 2023 and September 2024, Chekmazov and Fomin received 7.71 million rubles from Oborontest’s Deputy General Director, Alexander Sukharev, “in exchange for the unrestricted acceptance of project stages, ignoring detected violations, and overall patronage in service matters.”
Chekmazov has been placed in pre-trial detention, while Fomin is under house arrest. Both men face charges under Article 290, part 6, of Russia’s Criminal Code, which covers large-scale bribery. Sukharev is also being investigated for offering a bribe under Article 291, part 5, of the Criminal Code.
This arrest follows a broader crackdown within Russia’s defense sector. On September 3, military investigators charged former employees of the Military Construction Company (VSK) with taking bribes and abusing their official positions. The accused include Sergey Gorsky, Deputy Head of the Construction Department, and senior officials overseeing projects for the Western Military District (ZVO).
The case centers on bribes exceeding 13 million rubles, allegedly paid to ensure the approval of advance payment requests and to overlook violations during the construction of a multi-specialty clinic for the Kirov Military Medical Academy.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Right-wing influencers were duped to work for covert Russian influence operation
They have millions of followers online. They have been major players in right-wing political discourse since Donald Trump was president. And they worked unknowingly for a company that was a front for a Russian influence operation, U.S. prosecutors say. AP reports.
An indictment filed Wednesday alleges a media company linked to six conservative influencers — including well-known personalities Tim Pool, Dave Rubin and Benny Johnson — was secretly funded by Russian state media employees to churn out English-language videos that were “often consistent” with the Kremlin’s “interest in amplifying U.S. domestic divisions in order to weaken U.S. opposition” to Russian interests, like its war in Ukraine.
In addition to marking the third straight presidential election in which U.S. authorities have unveiled politically charged details about Russia’s attempted interference in U.S. politics, an indictment indicates how Moscow may be attempting to capitalize on the skyrocketing popularity of right-wing podcasters, livestreamers and other content creators who have found successful careers on social media in the years since Trump was in office.
The U.S. Justice Department doesn’t allege any wrongdoing by the influencers, some of whom it says were given false information about the source of the company’s funding. Instead, it accuses two employees of RT, a Russian state media company, of funneling nearly $10 million to a Tennessee-based content creation company for Russia-friendly content.
After the indictments were announced, both Pool and Johnson issued statements on social media, which Rubin retweeted, saying they were victims of the alleged crimes and had done nothing wrong.
“We still do not know what is true as these are only allegations,” Pool said. “Putin is a scumbag.”
In his post, Johnson wrote that he had been asked a year ago to provide content to a “media startup.” He said his lawyers negotiated a “standard, arms length deal, which was later terminated.”
Kostiantyn Kalashnikov and Elena Afanasyeva are charged with conspiracy to commit money laundering and violating the Foreign Agents Registration Act. They are at large, and it was not immediately clear if they had lawyers.
Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized influence operations to help Trump in the 2020 election, while his 2016 campaign benefited from hacking by Russian intelligence officers and a covert social media effort, according to U.S. law enforcement and intelligence officials.
With the decline of traditional media like newspapers and limits on direct advertising on social media platforms, influencers are increasingly playing a key role in politics and shaping public opinion. Both the Republican and Democratic parties invited scores of influencers to their respective national conventions this summer. But with little to no disclosure requirements about who is funding influencers’ work, the public is largely in the dark about who is powering the messaging online.
Though the indictment does not name the Tennessee-based company, the details match up exactly with Tenet Media, an online media company that boasts of hosting “a network of heterodox commentators that focus on Western political and cultural issues.” Tenet’s website lists six influencers who provide content, including Pool, Johnson, Rubin, Lauren Southern, Tayler Hansen and Matt Christiansen.
Zelenskyy to attend upcoming Ramstein summit in Germany in person, Der Spiegel reports.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will travel to Germany to attend the Ramstein-format summit of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) on Sept. 6, German news outlet Der Spiegel reported on Sept. 5.
The U.S.-led group, consisting of over 50 countries, including all 32 NATO members, convenes at Ramstein Air Base in Germany. The meeting on Sept. 6 will be the group's 24th meeting since its establishment in April 2022.
According to Der Spiegel's sources, Zelenskyy wants to attend the meeting in person to outline how serious the battlefield situation is and to ask for more weapons deliveries, "especially long-range missiles and more air defence."
During a press conference with Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof, Zelenskyy said on Sept. 2 that Ukraine has not yet received all the weapons promised by the West.
"We need not only permission, but we also need (the actual weapons). We have not received everything we want to use," Zelenskyy said.
Zelenskyy was referring to the fact that while Western countries have largely allowed Ukraine to use their arms in the Kursk incursion, the U.S. and the U.K. have maintained their restrictions on the use of long-range missiles like ATACMS or Storm Shadow to hit deep inside Russia.
Permission to use certain long-range arms on Russian soil depends on the U.S., the U.K., France, and Germany, which have relevant drones and missiles, he added, adding that "The permission alone is not enough today."
MILITARY & TECH
Romanian president signs decree on donating Patriot to Ukraine
Romanian President Klaus Iohannis on Sept. 5 signed a decree regarding the transfer of a Patriot air defense system to Ukraine, giving final approval to the donation. The Romanian government is now expected to issue an order for the system's delivery. The Kyiv Independent reports.
The move came days after former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba urged foreign partners not to delay and provide Kyiv with the promised Patriots.
The highly advanced Patriot systems have played a crucial role in protecting the Ukrainian sky. They are capable of downing even the most advanced ballistic missiles, such as Kinzhals. Ukraine has received at least three Patriot systems from Germany and one from the U.S. Other countries, like the Netherlands and Spain, delivered individual launchers or missiles.
The U.S. and the Netherlands also pledged in June to deliver one additional system each, but no announcement on their arrival has been made so far.
Hesitant at first, Bucharest decided to donate one of its Patriots in June. Iohannis said that the transfer of the Patriot system to Kyiv must not compromise Romania's air defence capabilities.
The document approved by the Romanian parliament states that replacing the Patriot system should not cost more than Romania originally paid for the unit. The costs are expected to be covered by "non-refundable foreign sources."
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