THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-10-17
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Oct 16 stated that day 967 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 112 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 1 missile strike, 49 air strikes, 655 drone strikes and more than 3,500 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of October 17, 2024 (from 7:30 p.m. 16/10 to 05:00 a.m. 17/10), the enemy attacked Ukraine with an Kh-59 guided air missile from the airspace of the Kursk region, as well as 56 strike UAVs and unmanned aerial vehicles of an unknown type (launch areas: Kursk, Orel, Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Russian Federation).
Aviation, anti-aircraft missile forces, electronic warfare units and mobile fire groups of the Air Force and the Defense Forces of Ukraine were involved in repelling the attack.
As a result of anti-aircraft combat, 22 enemy UAVs were shot down in the Sumy, Kyiv, Poltava, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Mykolaiv, Cherkasy, Odesa and Ternopil regions.
Two unmanned aerial vehicles left the airspace in the direction of Belarus, 27 attack UAVs and unmanned aerial vehicles of an unknown type were lost as a result of active countermeasures by the Defense Forces' EW.
5 strikes of UAVs on infrastructure facilities in the frontline areas were recorded.
The Russian Border Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 16 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment assessed that poor weather is reportedly slowing down and complicating Russian and Ukrainian mechanised advances in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast. A Ukrainian serviceman operating in Kursk Oblast reported that Russian forces are attacking in small infantry groups on amphibious combat vehicles and that communication issues between Ukrainian units, possibly caused by poor weather conditions, may be facilitating Russian counterattacks in Kursk Oblast. The serviceman noted that the current Ukrainian to Russian manpower ratio is one to five servicemen, and that Ukrainian forces continue to attack despite manpower disadvantages and coordination problems. The serviceman expressed scepticism that Russian forces will begin assaults on Sudzha in the coming weeks or months, noting that poor weather is complicating Russian efforts to advance on dirt roads using amphibious combat vehicles.
Russian sources also acknowledged that rainy and muddy conditions are complicating combat operations for both sides in Kursk Oblast and that Russian forces are increasingly relying on artillery fire. A former Russian Storm-Z instructor and milblogger claimed that Russian forces successfully advanced on the northwestern flank of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast at first, but then stalled and have not achieved any significant advances since.
Russian forces recently advanced on the western side of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast amid continued fighting along the entire salient on Octr 15 and 16. Geolocated footage published on Oct 16 shows that Russian forces recently advanced east of Lyubimovka and in western Zelenyy Shlyakh (both southeast of Korenevo), and geolocated footage published on October 14 shows that Russian forces advanced in the fields northwest of Kruglenkoye (southeast of Korenevo). Geolocated footage published on October 15 showed Russian forces striking Ukrainian forces in a building in Olgovka (immediately east of Korenevo), indicating that Ukrainian forces recently regained some positions in Olgovka. The Ukrainian serviceman fighting in Kursk Oblast reported on Oct 16 that Russian and Ukrainian forces are currently fighting for Olgovka and Novoivanovka (northeast of Zelenyy Shlyakh), which are partially under Ukrainian control. Russian and Ukrainian forces reportedly continued fighting southeast of Korenevo near Tolstyi Lug, Lyubimovka, Zelenyy Shlyakh, Nizhnyi Klin, Malaya Lokhnya, and Novoivanovka; east of Korenevo near Olgovka; northeast of Sudzha near Russkoye Porechnoye, Nizhnyaya Parovaya, and Nechayev; south of Sudzha near Plekhovo; and southeast of Sudzha near Russkaya Konopelka and Fanaseevka.
Russian and Ukrainian forces continued limited positional engagements in Glushkovsky Raion (west of the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast) on Oct 15 and 16 but did not make confirmed advances. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that fighting continued on the northern outskirts of Novyi Put (southwest of Glushkovo) but that there is no confirmation that Russian forces seized the settlement. Another prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces seized the “Konstantinovka” Checkpoint on the international border between Kursk and Sumy oblasts.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 2 Russian attacks near Starytsya.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 18 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Kucherivka, Pishchane, Stepova Novoselivka, Lozova and Vyshneve. 9 engagements continue.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 17 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Hrekivka, Nevske, Terny and Torske. 4 engagements continue.
Siversk Sector: There has been no significant change in the combat environment in the last 24 hours.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 3 unsuccessful offensive actions near Stupochky over the last day.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 1 unsuccessful offensive action with air support near Toretsk.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces conducted 11 attacks against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Promin, Krutnyi Yar and Selydove. 2 engagements are ongoing.
Kurakhove Sector: The greatest activity over the last day was in this sector. Russian forces conducted 46 attacks against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Tsukuryne ,Novoselydivka, Hirnyk, Heorhiivka, and Vodyane. At the moment the fighting has not subsided, 20 engagements continue.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 3 assaults against Ukrainian positions near Zolota Nyva, Novoukrainka and Bohoyavlenka.
Orikhiv Sector: Russian forces made 1 unsuccessful attempt to advance against Ukrainian positions near Mala Tokmachka.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, Russian forces made 6 unsuccessful attempts to force Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Ukrainian Attacks Continue to Undermine Russian Military Presence in Crimea
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Oct 17 Intelligence Update on Ukraine stated that Ukrainian forces struck the Feodosia oil terminal in Crimea for the second time in 2024, signalling continued pressure on Russian military assets in the region.
Ukraine's General Staff confirmed Ukraine struck the Feodosia marine oil terminal in Russian-occupied Crimea on 7 October 2024. This terminal was previously targeted in March 2024 by Ukrainian uncrewed aerial vehicles.
Ukrainian attacks continue to incrementally degrade Russian military capabilities on the Crimean peninsula. Targets struck in 2024 have also included air-defence systems, airfields, command centres, naval facilities, logistics sites and the Kerch Strait crossing.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine dismantles major drug cartel
Law enforcement officials conducted over 230 searches across 20 regions of Ukraine, during which they discovered and dismantled 19 drug laboratories. Ukrinform reported citing Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko on Telegram.
"The police dismantled a drug cartel whose members manufactured and sold psychotropic substances through channels in a messaging app." Klymenko stated
The minister noted that the law enforcement conducted more than 230 searches across 20 regions, apprehending over 60 individuals. Nineteen drug laboratories were dismantled, which produced nearly a ton of amphetamine and Alpha-PVP each month.
According to Klymenko, the criminals' income reached over UAH 350 million per month.
"This is how the fight against drug trafficking should be: systematic and primarily aimed at those who supply the drugs," Klymenko emphasised.
As reported by Ukrinform, four drug dealers belonging to an organised crime group were arrested in Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk region.
Almost $300 million from Canada has already arrived in Ukrainian treasury accounts.
"Ukraine received almost $300 million USD (400 million Canadian dollars) of financing from Canada on preferential terms. The funds have already arrived in the state budget. I thank Canada for its unwavering solidarity," UkrainianPrime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced via Telegram.
Shmyhal clarified that since the start of the full-scale war, Ukraine has received $5.4 billion in direct budget support from Canadian partners.
"This is an important contribution to our stability. With these funds, we finance the most important budget expenditures and thus fulfill the state's obligations to citizens. I am sure that Canada will continue to stand by Ukraine in our joint struggle for freedom," the prime minister added.
As Ukrinform reported earlier, on October 11, Minister of Finance Serhiy Marchenko signed the Fourth Additional Agreement with the Government of Canada regarding an additional loan in the amount of 400 million Canadian dollars (almost $300 million).
RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia’s ability to sustain prolonged offensive operations in question
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 16 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin's current theory of victory in Ukraine seeks to protract the war and posits that Russian forces can outlast Western support for Ukraine and collapse Ukrainian resistance by winning a war of attrition.
Russia will likely face serious medium- and long-term constraints that will undermine this strategic effort, however. Putin and the Russian military command have committed the Russian military to a year-long offensive effort along the frontline in eastern and northeastern Ukraine that seeks to exhaust Ukrainian forces and prevent Ukraine from accumulating the necessary manpower and materiel to conduct counteroffensive operations that contest Russia's theatre-wide initiative.
Putin and the Russian military command likely view retaining the theatre-wide initiative as a strategic priority and have shown themselves to be tolerant of protracted offensive operations that result in gradual, creeping advances far short of their intended operational objectives.
The Russian military is currently attempting to eliminate a challenge to its theatre-wide initiative in Kursk Oblast following the Ukrainian incursion in early Aug 2024 while maintaining offensive pressure in eastern Ukraine in pursuit of longstanding operational objectives. The Russian military's intensified Summer 2024 offensive operation to seize Pokrovsk and reduce the wider Ukrainian salient in western Donetsk Oblast will likely culminate in the coming months, although the Russian military command will likely continue to commit Russian forces to the overall strategic effort to retain the theatre-wide initiative and exhaust Ukrainian forces well past this operational culmination point regardless of the state of Russian forces' combat effectiveness.
Putin's theory of victory relies on Russian forces conducting consistent offensive operations indefinitely, but these grinding assaults will likely degrade available Russian manpower and materiel significantly enough that Russian forces will have to decrease offensive tempo on at least select sectors of the front — presenting Ukrainian forces with opportunities to contest and perhaps seize the battlefield initiative in these areas.
Medium- to long-term constraints on Russian force-generation capacity and Russian military-industrial production will undermine Russia's ability to support consistent offensive operations that seek to protract the war and overwhelm Ukraine through attrition.
ISW has observed a steady widespread increase in financial incentives that Russian authorities are offering for concluding a military contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), suggesting that Russia is exhausting recruitment pools of willing volunteers. Russian authorities have reportedly expressed concerns that ongoing recruitment efforts are producing diminishing results, and Putin remains committed to avoiding another partial mobilisation call-up of reservists despite growing signs of force-generation constraints.
Putin retains the option to conduct another partial mobilisation wave — as he did in Fall 2022 — but will likely only do so under immense pressure or once the ongoing crypto-mobilisation campaign seriously fails.
Russian offensive operations in Ukraine have resulted in pronounced equipment losses, particularly for armoured vehicles, and Russian military industrial production capacity will likely fail to replace these losses in the medium- to long-term. Russia currently relies on refurbishing a large but finite stock of Soviet-era equipment to replace its outsized losses in Ukraine and appears to be depleting stockpiles at an increased rate.
Russia is leveraging partnerships with North Korea and Iran to acquire ammunition and military equipment and is engaging with the People's Republic of China (PRC) to acquire critical components for defence production, but these international procurement efforts will not address all the Russian materiel requirements in Ukraine. Putin appears just as reluctant to conduct a full-scale economic mobilisation as he is to conduct another mobilisation wave, and it remains unclear if critical bottlenecks and worsening labour shortages would even allow Russia to rapidly and fully mobilise its economy for the war effort in the event that Putin permitted it.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Zelenskyy tells Trump that Ukraine will have either nuclear weapons or join NATO
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, at a briefing in Brussels after attending a meeting of the European Council has revealed that he discussed the need for Ukraine to be accepted into NATO with US presidential candidate Donald Trump, mentioning Kyiv's renunciation of nuclear weapons. Ukrainska Pravda reported.
The president described the Budapest Memorandum as an ineffective agreement that failed to safeguard Ukraine after it had given up its nuclear arsenal.
"Among all these great powers, all the nuclear nations, which one has suffered? Was it all of them? No, only Ukraine. Who gave up nuclear weapons? Was it all of them? Only Ukraine. Who is at war today? Ukraine.
In a conversation with Donald Trump, I told him: 'We've found ourselves in this situation, so what's the way out? Either Ukraine will have nuclear weapons, and then it will be our defence, or we need to have some kind of alliance. Apart from NATO, we don't know any effective alliances today'," Zelenskyy stressed
He added that NATO countries are not at war today, which is why Ukraine chooses NATO over nuclear weapons.
"I believe that Donald Trump heard me. He said: 'Your reasoning is fair'," Zelenskyy said.
Ukraine to receive Abrams tanks in latest Australian military aid package
Dozens of soon-to-be-retired Australian Abrams tanks will be sent to Ukraine under a $245 million military support package to bolster the war-torn country's fight against Russia's invasion. ABC News reports.
More than a year after Kyiv first expressed interest in the M1A1 fleet, and months after Australia rejected a request to donate its grounded Taipan helicopters, the Albanese government has confirmed it will now gift 49 of the American-made tanks.
Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy, who is attending a NATO defence ministers meeting in Brussels this week, will brief his Ukrainian counterpart directly about the latest support package.
"We stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Ukraine in their fight against Russia's illegal invasion," Mr Conroy said while in London, where he's meeting members of the UK government before travelling to NATO.
"These tanks will deliver more firepower and mobility to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and complement the support provided by our partners for Ukraine's armoured brigades — Australia has been steadfast in our support for Ukraine."
"As we face a challenging geo-strategic environment, it is important that we continue to work together with our partners around the world to deter aggression and coercion, and protect the global rules-based order."
In recent weeks, Australia has received the first of its 75 newer M1A2 tanks, which will eventually replace the army's fleet of 59 older M1A1 vehicles that have never been used in combat.
Australia's transfer of its aging Abrams to a "third country" has required permission from the United States under its International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) despite Washington last year sending 31 of its own M1A1 tanks to Ukraine.
As Australia's older M1A1 vehicles are reaching the end of their life, a small number will require remediation work before being delivered to Europe, or they could simply be sent quickly to Ukraine and used for spare parts or other roles.
Ukraine-based defence consultant JC Dodson, who helped with the initial negotiations to transfer Australia's Abrams, says the vehicles should arrive at the battlefront at a faster rate than normal.
"One of the unique elements of the Australian tanks is that they're in reasonably good working order. The fact the Ukrainians already have some M1A1s in theatre from the allies suggests there's a good logistics chain there as well as some training," he told the ABC.
Western sources question reports of North Korean Soldiers fighting in Ukraine.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Oct 16 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment stated that the South Korean Ministry of Defense (MoD) stated on Oct 16 that it is "closely" monitoring indications that North Korean troops are directly supporting Russia's war effort in Ukraine amid reports that the Russian military is training North Korean soldiers.
The South Korean National Intelligence Service also announced on Oct 16 that it is tracking the possibility that North Korean troops are participating in Russia's war effort and that it is coordinating with Ukrainian intelligence services.
Sources in Ukraine's military and intelligence services told Ukrainian outlets RBC Ukraine and Suspilne that the Russian military is currently training over 10,000 North Korean soldiers in Russia's Far East and are preparing to transfer some of them to border areas near Ukraine in order to free up Russian military personnel for rotations.
Ukrainian outlets Suspilne and Liga reported on Oct15, citing anonymous military intelligence sources, that the Russian 11th Airborne (VDV) Brigade is forming a 3,000-person “battalion” staffed by North Korean citizens (the numerical strength is far beyond a battalion’s), which the Russian military will likely deploy to defensive operations in Kursk Oblast.
ISW has not observed reports that North Korean troops are involved in combat operations, however. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated on Oct 16 that NATO does not have "definitive" information that North Korean troops are fighting in Ukraine.
The New York Times (NYT) reported on Oct 16 that unspecified US military and intelligence officials "expressed some skepticism" that a significant number of North Korean personnel were fighting in Ukraine, but stated that they had "little doubt" that North Korean engineers and observers are operating in occupied Ukraine and Russia in part to build and operate North Korean-provided ballistic missiles for Russian forces.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukrainian company to build explosives plant in Lithuania
The Lithuanian Ministry of Economy and Innovation and a Ukrainian company have signed a letter of intent to cooperate in constructing an explosives plant in Lithuania. Militarnyi reports citing The Lithuanian Ministry of Economy and Innovation press service.
It is reported that the project will strengthen the defence capabilities of Ukraine, Lithuania, and Europe. Construction work is expected to start next year.
“We are actively developing defence cooperation with our partner, Ukraine. The new explosives production plant in Lithuania is a clear signal to the aggressor that we will not retreat. The defence capabilities of Ukraine and Europe are growing and will continue to grow both in terms of weapons and ammunition and in terms of advanced defence and security technologies,” Aushrine Armonaitė, Minister of Economy and Innovation of Lithuania, stated.
The global market for RDX (hexogen) explosives is growing rapidly. This explosive material has better properties than many other modern explosives: it detonates extremely quickly and with a powerful explosive force.
RDX can be used alone or in combination with other explosive materials and is used to make a wide range of bombs, mines, and other munitions.
The RDX market was estimated to be worth approximately €10 billion in 2023. Due to the increasing demand for this explosive, the market is projected to grow to reach USD 13 billion in 2028.
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