THE RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR BRIEF
For: 2024-11-14
Slava Ukraini! In early 2022 I began a Telegram channel aggregating news from a number of sources daily on the war in Ukraine. In June 2023 I began providing a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 70 sources daily, much of which formed the basis of the script. While the Podcast no longer exists I have continued to make this Brief available both on my own Substack and The People’s Media for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
All the latest news on the Russo-Ukraine War 6 days per week
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its Operational Information update at 22:00 on Nov 13 stated that day 994 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine was about to begin.
During the past day, 151 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 70 air strikes, 787 drone strikes and more than 3,859 artillery strikes across the positions of Ukrainian forces.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line and continue to disrupt the plans of Russian occupiers to advance deep into the territory of Ukraine.
Air Force Daily Report
On the night of November 14, 2024 (from 19:00 on November 13), the enemy attacked with 59 attack UAVs of the "Shahed" type and unmanned aerial vehicles of an unknown type from the Kursk region - Russian Federation.
As of 08:30, the shooting down of the enemy's 21st UAV in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava and Kyiv regions was confirmed.
38 enemy drones were lost in location.
The Russian Border Incursion
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US based think tank, in its Nov 13 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Russian continued ground attacks within the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on Nov13 but did not make any confirmed advances. Russian sources claimed on Nov 12 and 13 that Russian forces advanced southeast of Korenevo near Novoivanovka, Zeleny Shlyakh, and Darino; south of Sudzha near Kurilovka; and southeast of Sudzha near Plekhovo, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims. Russian forces continued attacking southeast of Korenevo near Novoivanovka, Leonidovo, Darino, Nikolayevo-Darino, and Malaya Loknya. A Ukrainian soldier operating in Kursk Oblast stated on Nov 13 that elements of the Russian 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade, 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet, Eastern Military District [EMD]) and 51st VDV Regiment (106th VDV Division) attacked his brigade's positions in an unspecified area in Kursk Oblast. The Ukrainian soldier stated that Russian forces are conducting daily roughly reinforced platoon-sized mechanised assaults using four to six armoured fighting vehicles.
South Korean and US intelligence separately confirmed that North Korean troops have deployed into combat alongside Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) confirmed on Nov 13 that it "assesses that the North Korean troops deployed to Russia" are already participating in combat after having completed their training and gradual battlefield deployment over the past two weeks.
US State Department Spokesperson Vedant Patel stated during a briefing on Nov 12 that over 10,000 North Korean troops deployed to eastern Russia, most of whom have now moved to western Kursk Oblast "where they have begun engaging in combat operations with Russian forces." ISW assessed on Nov 5 that North Korean troops had entered combat in Kursk Oblast, citing reports by Ukrainian intelligence and Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the northeastern part of Ukraine. )
Kharkiv Sector: Over the last day Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 8 Russian attacks in the area of Vysoka Yaruha and Vovchansk.
Kupyansk Sector: Russian Forces carried out 12 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Petropavlivka, Kucherivka, Kolisynivka, Kruhlyakivka, Zahryzove and Lozova and Pershotravneve.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian advance in the northeast.
Ukrainian forces on Wednesday repelled an attempt by Russian troops to pierce defences near the northeastern city of Kupiansk, Reuters reported on Nov 13 citing Ukraine's General Staff.
Kupiansk was seized by Russian troops in the early days of their February 2022 invasion and recaptured by Ukrainian troops in a lightning counter-offensive months later. In recent months, the area has seen an upsurge of activity by Russian forces.
The General Staff report, posted on Facebook, said Russian forces attacked in four waves and deployed about 15 pieces of equipment, including tanks, armoured vehicles and a mine-clearing system.
"With skilful and decisive actions, our defenders stopped the enemy, destroyed all of its armoured vehicles and eliminated a significant portion of its personnel," the report said.
Some of the Russian forces, it said, had, donned uniforms resembling those of the Ukrainian military, a practice it characterised as amounting to a war crime.
DeepState, a popular Ukrainian military blog, said two columns of Russian men and equipment had entered Kupiansk after dark. Russian servicemen scattered through the town, but Ukrainian forces struck armoured vehicles in the town and in surrounding forests and destroyed part of the group.
Lyman Sector: Russian Forces carried out 8 offensive actions against Ukrainian defensive positions near Cherneshchyna, Hrekivka, Terny and Zarichne.
Siversk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment.
Kramatorsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 1 unsuccessful offensive action against Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Stupochky.
Toretsk Sector: Russian forces carried out 7 offensive actions with air support near Toretsk and Nelipivka.
The Tavria operational-strategic group
(Responsible for the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.)
Pokrovsk Sector : Russian forces carried out 36 offensive actions in the vicinity of Sukha Balka [not shown on map] Myrolyubivka, Promin, Krutyi Yar, Lysivka, Dachenske, Petrivka, Hryhorivka, Pustynka and Novooleksiivka. 1 engagement continues.
Kurakhove Sector: The main thrust of Russian forces over the last day was in this district 40 offensive actions took place in the vicinity of Zorya, Novodmytrivka, Kreminna Balka, Voznesenka, Novoselydivka, Sontsivka, Berestky, Illinka, Vovchenka, Maksymilyanivka, Dalnje, Katerynivka and Antonivka.
Vremivka Sector: Russian forces made 10 attempts to break through Ukrainian defences in the vicinity of Novopil [not shown on map], Rivnopil, Makarivka, Kostiantynopolske and Trudove.
Orikhiv Sector: In this sector, over the last day, Russian forces made 3 attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions near Novoandriivka and Novodanlyivka.
The Odesa operational-strategic group
(Responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.)
Prydniprovsk Sector: In this sector, over the last day, there has been no significant change in the combat environment. Russian forces made 5 unsuccessful attempts to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions on the left bank of the Dnipro.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing Major to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Launch of Israeli-supplied early warning system in Ukraine is at final stage
Ukraine's Ambassador to Israel, Yevhen Korniichuk, has announced in a speech at the fifth Kyiv Jewish Forum that Israel fully supplied everything needed to create an early warning system for aerial threats as part of its assistance for Kyiv. Ukraine is now in the final stages of deploying this technology. Interfax-Ukraine reports.
He noted that part of the early warning system, specifically three-dimensional radars manufactured in Israel, had been launched in Ukraine.
"That's not a secret. The Ukrainian military is already using them [radars] today. And they're quite suitable and possible to purchase in large volumes if necessary."
Korniichuk added that Ukraine and Israel are fighting a common enemy, noting that the wars in both nations seem to be "coordinated from one centre". He also highlighted that the two countries share common allies.
The ambassador believes Israel would also be interested in Ukrainian mediation, for example, in connection with Ukraine's friendly relations with Saudi Arabia.
Pivdennoukrainsk Nuclear Power Plant prepares to build two new power units
Preparatory work continues at the Pivdennoukrainsk Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) for the construction of two power units using Westinghouse's AR1000 technology. The Pivdennoukrainsk NPP press service announced.
A geodetic report on the selection of a site for the construction of these facilities has already been developed, and geological studies have been carried out.
"These pre-design works are a prerequisite for the preparation of a feasibility study. It will become the basis for the working documentation, which will already take into account all the steps that will make up the large-scale construction at the Pivdennoukrainsk NPP," the nuclear power plant's press service said.
"Next year, we plan to commission several large-scale projects, namely MRT2 – Tashlyk No. 2 pumping station. We also plan to commission several stages of reconstruction of splash pools with a pumping station next year," said Andrii Pistun, Deputy Director General for Capital Construction.
A total of three power units with a total capacity of 3,000 MW currently operate at the Pivdennoukrainsk NPP.
RUSSIAN WORLD
‘End This Cursed War’: Russian Border Village Residents Appeal to Putin Amid Displacement.
Residents displaced by fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces in the Kursk region have grown increasingly vocal about government failures to ensure their safety and provide promised compensation for destroyed property, with a group of people from one village near the ongoing clashes calling on President Vladimir Putin to bring an end to the war in Ukraine.
“We ask you to end this cursed war, which has claimed the lives of many innocent people,” said an elderly man reading out a collective letter from residents of Olgovka addressed to Putin. “We’ve been left homeless… We’ve been living in hell over the past three months.”
The man, who was filmed alongside 40 other residents from Olgovka in a video posted online, likened the situation in the war-torn village to “scenes from a horror film.”
Residents of other border towns and villages in the Kursk region have also referred to the grinding conflict as “cursed” in separate video appeals to the Russian president. Authorities in Moscow, which have banned calling the full-scale invasion of Ukraine a “war,” officially refer to the conflict as a “special military operation.”
In their video appeals to Putin, displaced residents have said local officials informed them that work to repair their homes would take up to five years.
Last week, displaced residents from the Sudzhansky and the Bolshesoldatsky districts staged protests in the regional capital of Kursk, accusing local authorities of failing to compensate them for destroyed property or to provide them with suitable temporary accommodation.
Ukrainian drone strike in Dagestan exposes glaring problems for Russia
On November 6, a Ukrainian kamikaze drone (probably an A-22 Flying Fox) hit Russian warships in the Caspian Sea for the first time. According to Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence service, at least two targets were damaged. These are likely missile patrol ships Tatarstan and Dagestan moored at the Russian naval base in the city of Kaspiysk. The Moscow Times reports.
Kaspiysk is about 1500 kilometres from the border with Ukraine. Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said in September that Ukrainian drones are capable of hitting enemy targets at a distance of up to 1800 km. But the events of November 6 clearly still came as a surprise to Russian security forces.
Despite the head of Dagestan's call not to post photos and videos of the incident, channels from Dagestan and across Russia are full of videos of the drone's flight and impact from different angles.
The incident is also being hotly discussed on local social media. During the attempt to shoot down the drone, the Russian military spared no bullets, and as a result, some of them hit the homes of the Caspian people. Bloggers complain that despite the allocation of 550 million rubles ($5,640,000) of state funds for the Safe City system, neither the Emergency Situations Ministry's warning nor the civil defence systems worked. The mayor of Kaspiysk announced after the strike that street lighting will be turned off between 1 and 8AM "to minimise the presence of people on the streets at night."
Dagestan has long been one of the most problematic regions in Russia and for the Kremlin authorities.In June 2023, the republic's Prime Minister stated that due to "the threat of actions from Ukrainian special services and nationalists, anti-terrorist security measures will be strengthened in the republic." However, this is a fairly standard attempt to explain internal problems and, accordingly, the mood of the local population, which is also used by the central Russian authorities.
As early as the spring of 2022, more people from Dagestan were killed fighting in Ukraine than from any other region of Russia. The only mass actions against that year’s partial mobilisation took place in Dagestan. In 2023, Putin arrived in the republic for the first time in several years after local Telegram channels organised flash mobs with anti-Russian themes during Muslim holidays.
At the end of March 2024, the republic's Ministry of Internal Affairs reported that 14 Dagestanis were involved in criminal cases and put them on the wanted list for participating in the war "as part of units of the armed forces of Ukraine."
Therefore, the first case of Ukrainians hitting ships in the Caspian Sea is not just a success for Kyiv and new problems for the Russian navy, it is a direct approach of the Russian-Ukrainian war to Dagestan, which may have additional negative consequences for the Russian authorities in the region.
Russia’s Corporate Sector Faces High Costs as Interest Rates Soar to 21%
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Nov 13 Intelligence Update on Ukraine stated that as inflation rises, the Russian Central Bank’s aggressive rate hike sparks industry backlash and heightens economic uncertainty.
On October 25, 2024, the Central Bank of Russia raised its base interest rate to 21 per cent. This is the highest rate since the start of the full-scale invasion and reflects the CBR’s concerns about growing inflationary pressures in Russian economy. CBR governor Elvira Nabiullina said that “more drastic changes” to monetary policy might be required to get inflation under control. However, there is growing criticism of the CBR’s decision to keep interest rates high from key business executives across multiple Russian industries, the UK Defense Intelligence reports.
High interest rates in the Russian economy are highly likely to restrict business investment and growth. Since the beginning of the war in 2022, the volume of corporate loans and the proportion of them tied to the CBR’s base rate have increased. As a result, higher interest rates are leading to increasing costs of debt. These costs are highly likely exacerbating financial pressures on businesses, with corporate bankruptcies in Russia reportedly 20 per cent higher in 2024 than they were in 2023.
Inflationary pressures will highly likely continue to intensify in 2025 as government spending is forecast to increase, and labour shortages and pressure from sanctions persist. This will lead to increasing trade-offs between efforts to control inflation and supporting growth of the Russian economy.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
EU approves joint arms procurement, including for Ukraine, for first time in its history
The European Union has approved funding for joint defence procurement by its member states for the first time in its history. This initiative envisages plans to purchase missiles and ammunition, with part of the supply intended for Ukraine. Ukrainska Pravda reported citing the European Commission’s announcement.
EU funding will be allocated to five projects under the European Defence Industry Reinforcement through common Procurement Act (EDIRPA). Each project will receive €60 million in EU support.
Two of the projects involve the joint procurement of Mistral and IRIS-T SLM air defence systems, another two focus on 155 mm ammunition, and a fifth on armoured personnel carriers. According to the European Commission, the total value of these projects exceeds €11 billion.
The selected EDIRPA projects bring together 20 EU member states.
"Most selected projects also include procurement of defence products intended for Ukraine, including air and missile defence systems and ammunition, bolstering the country’s defence capabilities in the context of the ongoing Russian aggression," the European Commission notes.
MILITARY & TECH
Poland deploys South Korean-supplied K2 tanks near border with Russia
Major Magdalena Kosińska, spokeswoman for Poland's 16th Pomeranian Mechanised Division, has announced that Poland has deployed South Korean-supplied K2 tanks manufactured by Hyundai Rotem a few kilometres from Russia's Kaliningrad Oblast. Polish news agency PAP reports.
The tanks were delivered to the unit in the city of Braniewo using tank transporters.
On Thursday, representatives of the Polish military and the South Korean side will complete the formalities necessary to accept the tanks.
"The next step will be to equip the tanks with systems used in the Polish military, including communications equipment," said Kosińska.
The K2 Black Panther tanks are known for their advanced technological solutions, especially their active defence system, which effectively counters missiles and anti-tank fire.
They also feature high mobility, allowing them to perform rapid manoeuvres even in rugged terrain such as marshes or sands.
Equipped with precise guidance and fire control systems, they ensure effectiveness in diverse combat conditions.
"The 9th Brigade received seven tanks in the first batch. Another batch is expected at the end of this year. The unit currently has eight trained crews who have been prepared by instructors from the 20th Mechanised Brigade," said Major Kosińska.
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