Is The Russian Federation In Danger of Shattering?

Kadyrov comes into conflict with the Kremlin

Moscow is displeased with the Chechen leader’s negotiations with Middle Eastern monarchies regarding his family’s safety, Russian investigative organization iStories reports.

In recent months, relations between Ramzan Kadyrov and Vladimir Putin have deteriorated. A former FSB officer specializing in the North Caucasus told IStories about this, and his current colleague confirmed it. This information was partially confirmed by a North Caucasian journalist and human rights activists interviewed by IStories.

According to our sources, the main reason for the discord between Kadyrov and Putin was information from the FSB about the Chechen leader’s increasingly frequent and unsanctioned negotiations with representatives of Middle Eastern Muslim monarchies regarding the future of his assets and the safety of his family members.

Kadyrov has been seriously ill for a long time. As journalists from Novaya Gazeta Europe described in their investigation, he has serious kidney and pancreatic problems.

Judging by the difficulty he has speaking, his illness is progressing. Although Kadyrov is trying to conceal the deterioration of his condition with increased media activity, in recent months he has increasingly disappeared from the public eye for long periods. In January and February, the head of the Chechen Republic did not appear in front of cameras for a long time, later justifying this with a vacation. “There isn’t a disease that hasn’t been attributed to me,” he commented on the situation with his disappearance. Since then, Kadyrov has not made any loud statements and has published only videos of his “inspections” in the republic, which are usually filmed in advance as so-called canned footage.

The head of Chechnya understands well how power works in his region and what can await his family members in the event of his departure. He also knows the value of promises and security guarantees from the federal center.

Uncertainty about the future of his numerous relatives has forced him to seek guarantees for them in Middle Eastern Muslim countries, with whose leaders Kadyrov has long-standing friendly relations. According to IStories sources, the head of Chechnya tried to hide these negotiations from the Kremlin, which the FSB immediately learned about and reported to Putin.

Recently, for example, Kadyrov removed his eldest child, 26-year-old daughter Aishat, from government positions. Since 2020, Aishat, the closest of all the children to her father, became the first deputy minister of culture of Chechnya, later headed the ministry, and by 2023 became the republic’s deputy prime minister. At the same time with the deterioration of Kadyrov’s relationship with the Kremlin, Aishat left her post and became the owner of Chechnya’s largest exporter, the Chechen Mineral Waters Ltd company, the publication Verstka wrote. Prior to this, the company also belonged to the Kadyrov family — first through the Akhmat Kadyrov Foundation, then through two nominal owners.

At the end of March, the names of Aishat Kadyrova and the youngest daughter of the head of Chechnya, Tabarik, were hidden from the legal entities register.

The discord with the Kremlin also affected Kadyrov’s closest associate, State Duma deputy Adam Delimkhanov. “Since the beginning of 2025, Adam Delimkhanov has categorically refused to participate in any power struggles, no matter the sum at stake. To the select few who can directly address Delimkhanov, he states that a strict order has been received ‘from the very top’ that Chechen leaders and security forces should not be involved in any such stories and generally keep a low profile,” wrote VChK-OGPU, the Telegram channel about Russian security forces. IStories sources confirm this information.

An independent journalist working in the North Caucasus region, speaking on condition of anonymity, says that the Caucasian human rights community also learned about the conflict between Kadyrov and Delimkhanov with the Kremlin.

A representative of the Chechen NIYSO Movement, Ansar Dishni, in a conversation with IStories, says that “Adam Delimkhanov was indeed made aware of the limits of his ‘capabilities.’”

According to him, Delimkhanov is still staying at the President Hotel on Bolshaya Yakimanka in Moscow — this place serves as headquarters for Kadyrov’s representatives in the capital. The Kremlin and the FSB were dissatisfied with the fact that Delimkhanov had recently organized criminal schemes, including raiding and extortion, without coordinating with the country’s leadership, human rights activists say. Dishni did not specify which actions of Delimkhanov’s team were involved.

Grumpy Here - If Kadyrov is looking at escape routes for his family and assets it means, in my opinion, that he suspects they would not be able to hold onto control of Chechnya after his passing. This could very likely result in a power play or even civil war.

Clearly the surrounding Caucasus region is watching closely, Few in that region are happy with Moscow, ethnic tensions are very high. If things go badly in Chechnya we could see rebellions in other central Asian states that Moscow would be incapable of dealing with seeing their current level of commitment in Ukraine.

This situation bears close attention as it is possible it could escalate to become the end on Putin and his dreams of empire.