Analysis of the new Russian offensive around Avdiivka

Russia’s assault on Avdiivka yields minimal gains and massive losses so far

The following is my analysis of the first two days of Russia’s offensive around Avdiivka

In the last few days Russia has attempted a new offensive in the Avdiivka area attempting to encircle Ukrainian defenders there. The Russian goal seems to be to surround Ukrainian troops who are well entrenched in the city itself. Avdiivka, prewar, was a city of more than 30,000 people. The city has been fought over numerous times in the nine years of this war and is basically a ruin at this time.

At the start of this new offensive the Russians attacked with aerial bombardment then shelled Ukrainian positions with an estimated 200 artillery systems. 

Finally the Russians launched a massive ground attack. There were two main directions: from Krasnohorivka to Berdychi and Vodiane to Sieverne, Donetsk Oblast. The goal of this offensive is to drive pincers from the north and south meeting in Orlivka cutting off Ukrainian troops in the Avdiika pocket. Ukrainian intelligence indicated two full brigades of 8,000 soldiers were dedicated to this task.

Blue lines estimate the intended goals of the offensive Map courtesy of Russo-Ukraine War Map 

So far despite the massed firepower and the sheer numbers Russia has suffered massive losses in both men and equipment for minimal gain. 

In the northern pincer Russian forces were able to reach the railways because one tree line was the only fortification holding off Russians in Krasnohorivka. After reaching the rails, Russians started attacking Ukrainian positions around Berdychi and Stepove.

Blue lines estimate the extent of the Russian advance. The railway is highlighted in yellow - Map courtesy of Russo-Ukraine War Map

Russian sources claim that both settlements were captured, and Avdiivka is in operational encirclement. However, we know this is not true – both because their lips were moving and the clashes continue to occur between the rails and Stepove.

Moreover, to the south, Ukrainians even managed to capture Russian positions between Vodiane and Opytne. The Tavrijsk Group of Forces Spokesman, Alexandr Shtupun, reported that all Russian attacks were rebuffed.

Blue lines indicate attempted Russian advance. Red lines indicate Ukrainian advances - Map courtesy of Russo-Ukraine War Map

The analysis above comes from information released by the GSAFU and Euromaidan’s Frontline Report for Oct. 10. Russian losses on Oct 11 were even higher for minimal gain. It should be noted that,  The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in their Oct. 10 assessment stated that Russia had been assaulting the Avdiivka area for a year and a half and that: 

“an effort to capture Avdiivka would require more and higher-quality units than those currently deployed in the area”

It is hard to imagine that sane commanders would continue to squander their resources like this, but Russia has shown willingness time and again during this war to do exactly that. Presumably because their are more where they came from.

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