UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-02-10
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Feb. 10 stated that it was day 717 of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 111 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 0 missile strikes, 73 air strikes, and 76 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers continue to inflict losses in manpower and equipment on the occupying troops, exhausting the enemy along the entire front line.
Over the previous day the Ukrainian Air Force struck 5 areas of focus of enemy personnel, weapons and military equipment.
Ukrainian Missile forces struck 3 areas of focus of personnel, weapons and military equipment 2 control points, 2 enemy ammunition warehouses.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 11 attacks of the enemy near the settlements Synkivka and Ivanivka (Kharkiv oblast)
Lyman axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 14 attacks near Terny, and Yampolivka (Donetsk oblast) plus Bilohorivka (Luhansk oblast)
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian forces repelled 22 attacks near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske and Klishchiivka (Donetsk oblast)
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Avdiivka axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy who keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka. AFU soldiers are standing their ground and inflicting major losses on the invaders. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 21 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, and Avdiivka, plus 12 near Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
A closer look at Avdiivka
As Oleksandr Syrskyi assumes the role of Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces he faces difficult choices in regards Russia's offensive in and around Avdiivka. We will take a closer look at it and what decisions Ukraine may take. Some information in this report comes from sources like Euromaidan’s Frontline Report and the Institute for the Study of War’s’ Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Syrskyi has been handed to solve a very difficult problem in Avdiivka, where Russians recently penetrated the Ukrainian defense and entered the town from the north. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian forces appear to be preparing to fight their way through Avdiivka.
Once they reached the city itself, the overall tempo of Russian offensive operations suggests that Russian forces have prioritized fighting through Avdiivka block-by-block from the town’s southern residential area instead of trying to further encircle the settlement from further southwest or to the north, where Russian forces have made only limited gains.
Russian forces may seek to replicate attritional light infantry frontal assaults to make tactical gains by brute force, as Russian forces did during the Battle of Bakhmut. The current situation is almost exactly the same as it was in Bakhmut, as Russians are less than one kilometer from physically cutting off the main supply line. The crucial difference this time is that this supply line is not as exposed as the one in Bakhmut
Some analysts suggest that Ukrainians may need to combine a major counterattack with a withdrawal to save their troops, while others say that Russians overstretched their forces and may run out of reserves, which will lead to a forced regrouping and more air for Ukrainian forces. There is little public information to make a reasonable assessment of the probabilities of each scenario.
According to ISW, a Ukrainian withdrawal from the southern part of the town would not threaten to unhinge Ukraine’s defense in the whole region. Moreover, Ukrainian top generals began construction of a comprehensive defense line behind Avdiivka, that began in Dec. 2023.
Meanwhile Ukraine continues to bleed Russia dry in Avdiivka.
Mar’inka axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Heorhiivka and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 19 attacks in that area.
Shakhtarske axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 2 attack south of Zolota-Nyva, (Donetsk oblast) and north of Pryyutne (Zaporizhzhia oblast)
Zaporizhzhia axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 attacks near Robotyne, west of Novoprokopivka and west of Verbove (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea.
Kherson axis: Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy carried 4 unsuccessful assaults on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Syrskyi outlines new tasks for Ukrainian Armed Forces after taking command
The new Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced his plans for improving the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The newly appointed Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi , spoke about his current priorities, emphasizing the importance of precise planning, effective logistics, competent personnel, and modern technology.
Syrskyi replaced General Valerii Zaluzhnyi on 8 February following weeks of rumors regarding tensions between Valerii Zaluzhnyi and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
“New tasks are on the agenda. First and foremost, it is a clear and detailed planning of the actions of all military command and control bodies, associations, formations and units, taking into account the needs of the frontline for the latest weapons supplied by international partners. The fastest and most rational distribution and delivery of everything necessary for combat units has been and remains the main task of military logistics,”
— Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief
According to the new Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Army, the task of headquarters at all levels is “to know all the needs of the front without exception and to be aware of the situation in each of its areas.”
Oleksandr Syrskyi emphasized that the qualifications of military command and control personnel are crucial for developing and successfully implementing ideas and plans. He called the life and health of Ukrainian troops the primary value of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
“It is vital to maintain a balance between performing combat missions and restoring units and subunits with intensified education and personnel training,” Oleksandr Syrskyi said.
Oleksandr Syrskyi, 58, was the commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces from 2019 to 2024 and the commander of the Joint Forces Operation from May to August 2019.
Oleksandr Syrskyi commanded the defense of Kyiv during the Russian siege of the Ukrainian capital in 2022. In September 2022, he commanded the successful Kharkiv counteroffensive. Colonel General Syrskyi was also responsible for the defense of Bakhmut in 2023.
US House members visit Ukraine, assuring Kyiv of “continued support”
A bipartisan US Congressional delegation of four members, including Republicans and Democrats arrived in Kyiv on 9 Feb. to assure Kyiv that there is “overwhelming support of Ukraine” in the US House and Senate.
There is “overwhelming support” in the House of Representatives and the Senate for approving aid to Ukraine, House intelligence chair Republican Mike Turner said during the press conference in Kyiv on 9 February.
US House of Representatives intelligence chair Republican Mike Turner, who led a bipartisan US Congressional delegation of four members, including Republicans French Hill and Zach Nunn, along with Democrats Jason Crow and Abigail Spanberger, arrived in Kyiv to meet President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and assure Kyiv of “continued support for the country as further military aid remains tied up in Congress.”
Turner said There is “overwhelming support” in the House of Representatives and the Senate for approving aid to Ukraine, during the press conference in Kyiv on 9 February.
“We certainly look forward to this legislative process being resolved,” Turner said. He also said the Senate is taking action to move new legislation to “hopefully resolve this.”
Republican French Hill said US polls show Americans don’t want Putin to win in Ukraine. Hill said, “We will not allow this sovereign nation to be destroyed by the Russian bear.”
Democrat Jason Crow said they support Ukraine because “it is also in America’s interest” to have a stable Europe. He noted that for less than 5% of the annual US defense budget, they have helped Ukraine greatly damage Russia’s military and defend NATO allies.
Russian Shahed drones’ attack kills seven, including three children in Kharkiv
A Russian drone attack on Kharkiv on the night on Feb. 10 2024. Resulted in seven people killed in Kharkiv. Among them are three children: seven, four years old, and an infant, reported the head of the police of the Kharkiv region, Volodymyr Tymoshenko. A 45-year-old man and a 61-year-old woman were taken to a hospital with severe burns.
Russian drones hit an oil depot at night ( not a gas station, as was initially reported). The fuel exploded, causing an intense fire started in the nearby houses.
Kharkiv is located 30 kilometers from the Russian border. Russians constantly target the city with drones and S-300 missiles in ballistic mode. Due to the restriction of Ukraine’s NATO allies to use Western-supplied missiles against targets inside Russia, Ukraine can’t destroy launching systems in Russia’s Belgorod region, which borders Kharkiv.
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
Storage bases remain the primary source filling the Russian army’s needs
In a report for the Jamestown Foundation, researcher Pavel Luzin estimates that Russia has limited production of critical parts and resources for weapons and systems, such as explosives and semiconductors. This reflects that the real production of the Russian defense industry has largely remained the same as in 2022.
The report suggests Russia’s military-industrial complex showed only modest real growth in 2023, with much of so-called “production” being, in fact, the cannibalizing of systems in storage with certain limits.
“The physical output of essential goods for arms manufacturing has revealed minimal growth over the past seven years. While some sectors expanded, overall, Russia lacks evidence of significantly increased production,” he writes.
The manufacturing output index in three of four traditional industry groups related to arms production demonstrated impressive growth in 2023. However, it is highly dependent on changes in prices and costs, Luzin concludes. At the same time, the available data on physical output of some goods that are used in arms production demonstrated only a small growth:
The data on the physical amount of other goods, such as aluminum powders, aluminum sections, titanium sections, and bars, provided for 11 months and only in percent ratioed with the same period of the previous year, also demonstrates mostly moderate growth:
“In brief, there is no evidence that Russia produces a larger amount of all the mentioned products in such quantities as would be needed to further increase production rates of a wide range of military products, from explosives and artillery shells to aircraft and missiles. The production of electric power also confirms that there were no crucial changes in energy-intensive arms manufacturing, despite some increase in generation,” Luzin concludes.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
EU slams governments for banned goods reaching Russia
The EU has demanded governments urgently crack down on the illegal flow of goods to Russia, amid a push for Brussels to take control of closing sanctions loopholes. Politico reports.
In a letter sent to capitals on Wednesday, the European Commission warned countries there was a need for “immediate, concerted, and firm action by all of us.”
As patience wears thin with repeat offenders, EU finance chief Mairead McGuinness and trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis, who co-signed the letter, said they would soon share “detailed information” on where companies are evading sanctions. They said they would follow up with capitals by mid-April to assess action taken.
Sanctioned items from the EU are reaching Russia by first traveling through non-EU countries before re-export to Russia ― and through subsidiaries of European companies which operate outside the bloc to manufacture the items, the letter said.
The Commission is exploring the possibility of creating an EU body for sanctions enforcement, effectively wresting that job away from governments.
The letter said that EU exports of banned items to non-EU countries grew from €3 billion before the Ukraine invasion started to €5.6 billion by mid-2023. This “extremely worrying" increase offsets the loss of the legal trade in those items with Russia before the war, it said.
Ukraine eyes long-range missiles from US and Germany as Biden and Scholz meet
Ukraine’s Ambassador to the US expressed hope that the meeting between US President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz would pave the way for Ukraine to receive long-range missiles that it has been seeking from both countries to deter Russian attacks.
The upcoming meeting between US President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz may help Ukraine gain “long-range capabilities,” Ukraine’s Ambassador to the United States, Oksana Markarova, said on 9 February 2024.
The Ukrainian government has long been pushing the leaders of Germany and the United States to provide Ukraine with American long-range ATACMS missiles and German long-range Taurus missiles, which could help Ukraine’s Armed Forces disrupt the logistics of Russian troops in the occupied territories of Ukraine. However, Joe Biden and Olaf Scholz have repeatedly rejected Ukraine’s requests.
“This is an important meeting. I hope that they [Joe Biden and Olaf Scholz – ed.] will discuss the capabilities that we have not yet received. I hope that it will move us towards long-range capabilities. We constantly remind both partners that we need them very much,” Oksana Markarova said.
Political dithering in Brussels and Washington result in real world set backs for Ukraine
While overall EU countries contribute the most to Ukraine in terms of money spent, the US remains the primary donor of military equipment and ammunition which Europe lacks. The EU failed to match its initial promise to provide 1 million artillery shells during 2023. Without US support, the Ukrainian army wouldn’t receive enough artillery shells and air defense missiles to repel Russian attacks.
In particular, after the pause in US aid for already two months, Ukraine was forced to further reduce the norm of artillery ammunition expenditure to 2,000 shells per day, which is five times less than Russians fire. This has already resulted in Russian crippling gains around the east-Ukrainian city of Avdiivka.
Political games by politicians half a world away are causing the deaths of Ukrainians fighting for their freedom on the front line against a brutal invader. These deaths can partially be blamed directly on these politicians.
You can read an in depth article by The People’s Media’s own Rob Gaudette entitled “What’s Up With Congress and Aid to Ukraine” here
MILITARY & TECH
F-16 seen in Ukrainian livery?
A photo has emerged on social media of an F-16 with Ukrainian markings. The Photo was allegedly taken at the training facility in Romania.
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