UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-01-16
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Jan. 16 stated that it was the 692nd day of large-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 94 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy carried out 1 missile strike, 68 air strikes, and 78 MLRS attacks across the positions of our troops and settlements. As a result of the Russian attacks, unfortunately, there are dead and wounded among the civilian population. Destruction and damage to residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure.
Russia’s eastern assaults bog down as Ukraine stymies encirclements, maintains bridgehead in south
The UK Ministry of Defence in their Jan. 16 Intelligence update stated that despite some territorial gains, the Russian offensive in the Donbas region has stalled in the face of staunch Ukrainian resistance against encirclement attempts of strategic towns. Meanwhile, Ukrainian marines keep maintaining a bridgehead in Kherson Oblast.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Kup’yans’k axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 2 enemy attacks in the vicinity of Syn’kivka (Kharkiv oblast).
Lyman axis: the Ukrainian defenders repelled 13 attacks of the occupiers near Terny, Yampovlivka and the Serebryanka Forest (Luhansk oblast) and 19 near Bilogorivka and Verkhnyokamianska (Donetsk oblast).
Russians changed assault vector in Luhansk Oblast
Luhansk Oblast authorities report that Russians have redirected their assaults from Makiivka (the region’s west) to Serebrianka Forest and Bilohorivka (southwest), with 19 attacks thwarted on the previous day
On 16 January, Artem Lysohor, Head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration, reported that the Russian forces shifted their assault vector in western Luhansk Oblast, moving it to the region’s southwest.
In Ukraine’s northeast, Russians activated their assaults months ago, trying to seize Ukraine-controlled parts of Luhansk Oblast and capture the key railway hub of Kupiansk in adjacent Kharkiv Oblast. Despite massive ground attacks, the frontline did not change significantly during the Russian campaign.
“The occupiers have changed the vector of their assault operations, shifting it from Makiivka to Serebrianka Forest and Bilohorivka. In these areas, 19 Russian attacks were repelled yesterday,” he wrote on the Telegram.
Bakhmut axis: the Ukrainian soldiers repelled 7 attacks near Ivanivske, Klishchiivka and Andriivka (Donetsk oblast).
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Avdiivka axis: the Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy who keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka. AFU soldiers are standing their ground and inflicting major losses on the invaders. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 18 enemy attacks near Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, near Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast).
Mar’inka axis: the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to hold back the occupiers in the vicinities of Krasnogorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobjeda and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). Troops repelled 12 attacks in that area.
Shakhtarske axis: No significant offensive action.
Zaporizhzhia axis: Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 3 attacks near Robotyne, (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Kherson axis: the Ukrainian defenders continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. Over the past day, the enemy made 1 unsuccessful assault on the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Nothing to report.
THE HOME FRONT
Nothing to report.
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
Russians report drone attack on Voronezh, state of emergency declared
The Russian city of Voronezh reportedly had a "drone attack" on the night of January 16. Supposedly, debris from a supposedly downed drone damaged one of the multi-story buildings. The city has declared a state of emergency, according to the press service of the Russian Ministry of Defense and other Russian Telegram channels.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian air defense forces supposedly destroyed five and intercepted three drones over Voronezh. Four more drones were reportedly intercepted over the Belgorod region.
Debris from one of the drones apparently caused a fire in a residential building.
Russia instructs pension fund to conceal payments to Ukraine war participants amid efforts to hide military losses
Russian investigative news outlet Important Stories ("Vazhnye Istorii") has reported that, in the open data section of the Unified State Information System for Social Security, figures on support for military personnel and their families are published, which includes those killed during military service. The data that the Pension Fund has banned from being published could have shown both the Russian army's casualties and the number of those who received disability.
Russia's Pension Fund has sent a letter to its regional branches instructing their employees not to disclose information about social payments to participants of the war in Ukraine, a move that could reveal the extent of the Russian military's losses, according to the Ukrainian Centre for National Resistance.
In particular, branches in the Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod regions have been directed to stop uploading data regarding financial support and social measures for participants of the so-called "Special Military Operation” and their families into the "Unified State Information System for Social Security".
Moscow Internet System Reportedly Down for Three Days in Latest Ukrainian Cyberattack
A Moscow-based internet provider, Qwerty, has been inoperative for three days due to a cyberattack conducted by a Ukrainian group.
The IT Army of Ukraine, a loosely formed group of volunteer IT developers and hackers claimed responsibility for the attack on their Telegram channel. They justified the action by highlighting that Qwerty was not just used by civilians, but also by Russian government agencies.
“In Moscow, it's not only cold, but also, there's no internet. Qwerty, one of the largest internet providers in the enemy's capital, has been unable to restore service for three days due to our attack,” read the announcement.
According to Down Radar, a Russian site that detects website availability, Qwerty has registered 127 crashes in Moscow over the last 24 hours, followed by a series of complaints from Russian users.
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Blinken Promises Zelensky US Will Sustain Support for Ukraine
On the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
The event was also attended by National Security Advisor to the President of the United States Jake Sullivan and U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine's Economic Recovery Penny Pritzker.
“We are determined to sustain our support for Ukraine and we’re working very closely with Congress in order to work to do that. I know our European colleagues will do the same thing,” Blinken told Zelensky as they met at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
Zelensky thanked the Biden administration and the “bipartisan support” in the US Congress. “You mentioned about Congress. We really count on your support -- continuing your huge support,” Zelensky said.
Canada to Sign Security Agreement with Ukraine Soon – Canadian Ambassador
The signing of last week’s bilateral security cooperation agreement between Ukraine and the UK has encouraged other G-7 countries to step forward, Canada being the latest.
Ottawa has already handed over a draft of a bilateral security agreement to Kyiv, but the two sides have yet to agree on terminology. Canada uses the term “an agreement on security assurances.” However, after the negative experience of the 1994 “Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances,” in which Russia “assured” that it would safeguard Ukraine’s future security, Ukraine wants the stronger, more legally binding term “commitment” to be used.
Nevertheless, Canada’s Ambassador to Ukraine, Natalka Cmoc, said in an interview that, while the draft agreement provided by Canada refers to “security assurances” for Ukraine, rather than “security guarantees”, she doesn’t see this as an insurmountable problem and believes the two countries will be able to sign the document within a few weeks.
MILITARY & TECH
Ukraine considers adding French fighters to its arsenal
Ukraine is considering the issue of adding specialized attack aircraft for its Air Force and the unique functionality of the Mirage 2000 in particular has piqued Kyiv's interest.
According to Ukraine's top air force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk, acquiring F-16 multirole aircraft is still a priority for now, but the A-10 and Mirage 2000D are not out of the table either. Achieving air superiority for Ukraine requires not only modern fighters to repel the russian aviation but also an attack aircraft specialized in delivering long-range strikes upon the enemy, the Ukrainian Air Force Command signaled in its recent statement.
"Of course, we won't be able to immediately discard Soviet aircraft from operation. Therefore, alongside F-16s, the MiG-29 will also operate in the sky; it is possible that the combat capabilities of the Su-24M bombers will be strengthened by the Mirage 2000D, and the Su-25 attack aircraft by A-10 Thunderbolt II," said Oleshchuk.
Notably, while we already explained Ukraine's need for A-10 aircraft, the Mirage 2000 family of aircraft was barely ever discussed in the context of potential provisions to the Ukrainian forces. It was only a topic for debates back in March 2023 and some rumors later in August but no public progress on this matter since then. So why did the Ukrainian Air Force mention the not-so-promising prospect of acquiring this type of aircraft in particular? The answer lies in the fact that Mirage 2000D has a capability essential for Ukraine.
Particularly, that Mirage 2000D is a standard carrier of SCALP-EG cruise missiles and other guided air weapons. Accordingly, the "strengthening" of Su-24M with Mirage 2000D aircraft means an overall increase in the number of carriers of the Western cruise missiles in service with the Ukrainian Air Force.
There's also a technical aspect. MBDA management earlier disclosed that it took only "a few weeks" to design and implement adaptations enabling the use of SCALP-EG from Ukrainian Su-24M bombers. Meanwhile, Germany is considering the transfer of its Taurus cruise missile to Ukraine, which will necessitate a similar adaptation.
If Berlin commits to providing Taurus, some of the Ukrainian Su-24Ms will have to leave the country for up to six months to get ready to accept the new weapon, so the Air Force will need some aircraft in replacement for that period, Mirage 2000D being the perfect candidate.
One of the reasons other versions of the Mirage were not considered seriously before is because they did not offer additional functionality to the Ukrainian Air Force.
However the Mirage 2000D modification specifically is of interest because this has been specialized as a missile carrier and can actually level up Ukraine's capabilities and complement available Su-24Ms, not just be a band-aid solution to a temporary problem.
Ukrainian Abrams tanks get extra protection
The AFU has received and begun installing the Abrams Reactive Armor Tile (ARAT) suite on recently received tanks. ARAT is a Tank Urban Survival Kit component that was mounted on Abrams tanks during deployments to the Middle East. It consists of a set of two types of reactive armor tiles. There is the square box, which is called the M19 (similar in Ukraine), and then there is the one that looks like a terra cotta tile, which is the M32.
The explosive-filled packages could help the tanks stand up to increasingly advanced tanks and anti-tank munitions. Using the ARAT will allow the tanks the maneuverability and operability they will need in Ukraine. Ukraine received 31 M1 Abrams tanks from the U.S. military in the last year.
“Ironclad”: Ukrainian wheeled combat robot can destroy Russian positions
The new Ironclad robot that can remotely pound Russians with heavy machine gun fire is the latest example of Ukraine’s tech-driven approach to warfare
Soldiers of Ukraine’s 5th Separate Assault Brigade have employed the domestic ground unmanned platform Ironclad in combat, Ukraine’s Land Forces said on Tuesday.
Video footage shows the robot targeting a Russian position with a heavy machine gun. The Ironclad uses a domestic “Shablya M2” combat module, which can be fitted with 7.62 mm or 12.7 mm machine guns, according to the statement.
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