UKRAINE WAR BRIEF DAILY DRAFT
For: 2024-01-07
Slava Ukraini! Since June 2023 I have provided a daily draft for the Ukraine War Brief Podcast collecting news from over 40 sources daily much of which ends up in the script. I will make this Draft available here for those who wish to keep up with events on a daily basis.
INSIDE UKRAINE
ALONG THE CONTACT LINE
GSAFU Morning Report
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in its situation update at 06:00 on Jan. 07 stated that it was The six hundred and eighty third day of large-scale invasion of the Russian Federation against Ukraine.
During the past day, 45 combat engagements took place. Over the past 24 hours, the Russian occupiers were most active on three fronts Avdiivka, Marinka and Kherson. In total, the enemy carried out 9x missile and 84x air strikes, 50x MLRS attacks at the positions of Ukrainian troops and various settlements. Unfortunately, the russian terrorist attacks have killed and wounded civilians. Residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure were destroyed or damaged.
The Khortytsia operational-strategic group is responsible for the Kup’yans’k, Lyman, and Bakhmut axes, in the northeastern part of Ukraine.
Ukrainian authorities deny reports of new Russian offensive in Kharkiv Oblast
Volodymyr Fito, Head of the Public Relations Service of the Ground Forces Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in a recent interview denied the likelihood of a major Russian offensive in the near future, as reported by The Telegraph.
The British newspaper The Telegraph, citing unnamed sources in Ukrainian intelligence, claimed that the Russian Armed Forces are supposedly planning a new "large-scale offensive" into Kharkiv Oblast in the coming weeks, or at least the Ukrainian army is preparing for it. The recent attacks on Kharkiv and the oblast are purportedly a harbinger of this, with more attacks possible over the coming weekends.
Fito labelled this as "nonsense" saying journalists "distorted the whole thing" and there was "nothing new" He said The Telegraph was referring to "some obscure military intelligence elements" and that the article was "not worthy of attention".
Oleh Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, commenting on the article, noted that no unusual buildup of Russian troops had been noted in the area
“In order to speak about the enemy's plans for any offensive, they must amass units on one front or another. At present, there is no such cluster. There are no reasonable grounds to believe that the enemy will undertake any assault operations in this area in the near future. However, this situation can change at any moment."
— Oleh Syniehubov, Head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration
Kupyansk axis: Ukrainian defenders repelled 3x enemy attacks in the vicinities of settlements of Syn’kivka, Petropavlivka, and Ivanivka (Kharkiv oblast).
Lyman axis: the occupiers did not conduct any offensive (assault) operations.
Bakhmut axis: Ukrainian troops repelled 2x attacks of the adversary near Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Klishchiivka (Donetsk oblast).
The Tavria operational-strategic group is responsible for the Avdiivka, Mar’inka, Shaktars’ke, and Zaporizhzhia axes, in the central-eastern and southeastern part of Ukraine.
Avdiivka axis: the Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy who keeps trying to encircle Avdiivka. The Ukrainian soldiers are standing their ground and inflicting major losses on the invaders. For instance, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 8x attacks of the adversary in the vicinities of Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, and 16x more attacks near Pervomais’ke and Nevel’s’ke (Donetsk oblast) during the day of January 6.
Mar’inka axis: the Ukrainian defenders continue to hold back the enemy near Mar’inka and Novomykhailivka (Donetsk oblast). The Ukrainian troops repelled 9x attacks in that area.
Zaporizhzhia axis: the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 5x adversary attacks west of Verbove, Robotyne, and south of Novofedorivka (Zaporizhzhia oblast).
The Odesa operational-strategic group is responsible for Kherson, Qırım, (also known as Crimea) and the Black Sea
Kherson axis: the Ukrainian troops continue to expand the bridgehead. Despite significant losses, the enemy does not abandon its attempts to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their positions. For instance, the adversary made 18x unsuccessful attempts to assault the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces during the day of January 6.
Severe damage to Russian defence systems on the Qirim Peninsula.
Nataliia Humeniuk, Head of the Joint Press Centre for Operational Command Pivden (South) in an interview with Suspilne stated that the attack on Russia's military facilities in occupied Qirim on Jan. 4 destroyed not only a command post as previously stated but also severely damaged the Russian defence system on the peninsula. Ukraine's Defence Forces and targeted the new deployment of Shahed kamikaze UAVs on the peninsula.
"Not only was a command post hit, but a serious combat activity took place over the past 24 hours, including severe damage to the defence system on the Crimean Peninsula.
They are now once again experiencing the same hysteria with relocations, trying to manoeuvre and place both the defence systems and the assets they protect in other places,"
— Nataliia Humeniuk, Spokesperson for Operational Command South
Furthermore, Humeniuk noted that the Russian military has recently relocated launch sites for the Shahed UAVs. Although they mostly used Cape Chauda before, some launches were recorded near the settlement of Balaklava after several high-impact strikes by the Ukrainian forces.
TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES
Russians expand mobilisation in occupied territories, deploying new "military enlistment officers"
The National Resistance Centre reports that more and more repressive measures by the Russians are aimed at finding men to forcibly mobilise into the ranks of the Russian army.
The Russians are trying to strengthen mobilisation measures in the temporarily occupied territories of southern Ukraine, doctors, educators, and municipal employees are included in mobilisation lists.
In particular, new "military enlistment offices" have been set up to carry out mobilisation measures in the occupied cities of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. They are headed by military personnel brought in from the Russian Federation.
THE HOME FRONT
Russians expand mobilisation in occupied territories, deploying new "military enlistment officers"
The National Resistance Centre reports that more and more repressive measures by the Russians are aimed at finding men to forcibly mobilise into the ranks of the Russian army.
The Russians are trying to strengthen mobilisation measures in the temporarily occupied territories of southern Ukraine, doctors, educators, and municipal employees are included in mobilisation lists.
In particular, new "military enlistment offices" have been set up to carry out mobilisation measures in the occupied cities of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. They are headed by military personnel brought in from the Russian Federation.
THE HOME FRONT
Ukraine's Defence Intelligence chief on release of Azov soldiers from captivity
Ukraine’s military spy chief,Kyrylo Budanov, said in a statement on national television that Ukraine will eventually bring back all its prisoners of war, including the Azov fighters.
"Russia is playing its usual game: it is trying to play a trump card of, so to speak, questions that are socially complex in their understanding in many layers of our population, which include the question of Azov. Because this is a very contentious issue in our society, it is a very sore point. And they want to use this to give them some benefit in terms of destabilisation in our country. It will not."
— Kyrylo Budanov, Head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence
Patriot air defence systems already saved thousands of lives
A new article in the New York Times looks at the effectiveness of the Patriot air defence systems supplied by the US and Germany to help defend Ukraine from the onslaught of Russian missiles it is experiencing. It concludes that Patriot air defence systems have successfully repelled Russian ballistic missiles that could have caused massive losses and destruction.
The article notes that White House and Pentagon officials have warned that the United States may soon be unable to sustain Ukrainian Patriot missile batteries with interceptor missiles, the cost of which may range from US$2-4 million each.
"Given that the Patriot is one of the few systems that can effectively shoot down ballistic missiles, and ballistic missiles cause the most casualties, I think the number of lives saved during the war is in the thousands.
We managed to create a shield over the state thanks to our foreign partners. But if our foreign partners turn their backs on us, we will return to the beginning of the war, when people simply did not come out of their shelters and the Russians tried to turn our cities into complete ruins."
— Major Volodymyr
THE RUSSIAN WORLD
Russia increases combat capability of Russian Guard
The UK Ministry of Defence in its Jan. 07 Intelligence Update reported that the Russian Guard (Rosgvardia) is strengthening its resources and personnel against a background of turmoil in the internal security of Russia caused by the war against Ukraine.
Beginning last October elements of the disgraced Wagner PMC were incorporated into Rosgvardia. Since then the Vostok battalion from the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic. Now Moscow is attempting to disband the Kaskad Group (also from Donetsk), which specialises in using drones, to subordinate parts of it to the Russian Guard.
"New capabilities, along with its augmentation with experienced veterans from other groups, will likely represent a significant increase in combat effectiveness,"
— UK Ministry of Defence Intelligence Update
NEWS WORLDWIDE
Italian foreign minister calls for formation of EU army
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has floated the idea of the EU creating one common military. Reuters reports.
European defence cooperation has risen up the political agenda since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost two years ago.
"If we want to be peacekeepers in the world, we need a European military. And this is a fundamental precondition to be able to have an effective European foreign policy.
In a world with powerful players like the United States, China, India, Russia - with crises from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific - Italian, German, French or Slovenian citizens can only be protected by something that already exists, namely the European Union,"
— Antonio Tajani, Italian Foreign Minister
However, efforts have been more focused on NATO expansion, with EU nation Finland joining the alliance last year and Sweden also on track to become a member.
Tajani also said the 27-nation EU should streamline its leadership and have a single presidency, rather than the current structure of a European Council president and a European Commission president.
MILITARY & TECH
The National Guard of Ukraine receives field hospitals from Netherlands
Oleksandr Pivnenko, Commander of the National Guard of Ukraine has reported that it is already using modern field hospitals received from the Netherlands.
The National Guard noted that they have already received and are using the medical and humanitarian assistance provided, in particular field hospitals, which were transferred by the Dutch government’s decision. There are already eight of them in total.
The mobile medical hospital, which is designed for 26-50 beds in various configurations and is equipped with an autonomous power supply, can operate without a power supply on a diesel generator and also has a water supply and sanitation system.
"This significantly improves the conditions for providing assistance and treatment to our servicemen and facilitates the work of doctors who save soldiers' lives. It is provided with the necessary medicines and supplies," Pivnenko notes
Ukraine's Defence Ministry approves new developments
Ivan Havryliuk, Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Minister stated that the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine has officially adopted nearly a dozen new indigenously produced weapons systems and equipment in the first week of 2024. These include robotic systems, UAVs, engineering equipment and modernised anti-tank guided missile systems (ATGMs) with new missiles.
The new robotic systems include a ground robotic platform for remote mine-laying with a remote self-detonation function and a ground robotic logistics system.
In terms of UAVs, the Ukrainian army will receive a new modification of the Leleka (Stork) drone and two types of FPV drones with different payload capacities. Particular attention has been paid to protecting drones from Russian electronic warfare equipment.
A semi-mounted mine roller for armoured combat vehicles on a chassis has also been codified. In addition, Ukraine’s Armed Forces will receive a two-seater ATV with a load capacity of 800 kg and a separate tactical trailer.
A Shturm-SM mobile anti-tank missile system based on an armoured combat vehicle has also been tested and codified, and Ukrainian missiles with various types of warheads have been developed for the ATGMs.
The Shturm-SM mobile anti-tank missile system is an upgraded version of the Shturm-S and entered service with the Russian Army in 2014. It uses the more capable Ataka Attack missiles with a range of 6 000 m. This vehicle has a day/night fighting capability. It can also operate in adverse weather conditions.
No official word on Danish F-16 jets delay – Ukraine's Air Force – still expect to receive them in spring
Yurii Ihnat, spokesman for Ukraine's Air Force was asked to comment on a story published by the Danish newspaper Berlingske, which cited the Danish Defence Ministry as saying that Denmark's delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine was delayed by six months.
Copenhagen was supposed to deliver the first six warplanes by the new year 2024, but the ministry told the newspaper that their delivery was expected in the second quarter. Ihnat stressed that there were no official reports from Denmark about the delay in the delivery of F-16 jets to Ukraine, adding that Ukraine expects to receive them this spring.
Ihnat noted that it made no sense to deliver F-16s by the end of 2023, given that the infrastructure for the aircraft had not been prepared.
He explained that Ukraine expected both the fighter jets' delivery and pilot training completion this spring. The training of Ukrainian pilots for the F-16s in three countries.
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